Comments on Pathways to Permanent Residency …

Lars Vilhuber

2024-09-01

The paper

Not.

The presentation

  • migration into New Brunswick

Why?

workforce

The presentation

  • A lot of facts
  • A lot of acronyms…

What did I retain?

  • colleges
  • origins
  • provincial nominees

Some conceptual questions

Reverse migration

  • no discussion of reverse migration (PR from elsewhere coming to NB)
  • if none, why? General competitiveness of the NB labor market.

Provincial nominees

  • nearly half of university graduates who become PR
  • regressions don’t show quite as much effects
  • what drives that process?

Community colleges

huge rise

Community colleges

  • not much difference in “conversion” rates

community college conversion

Community colleges

  • not just for PR - do they stay? 60% (> 50% university graduates) (conditional on PGWP)
  • what are the skills conveyed by community colleges that are in demand?

“Default” retention rates

  • What is the “emigration” rate for natives?
  • What is the “return immigration rate” for natives?

Suggestions

Location effects

  • NB is small, but not uniform (UR, other)
  • Overall economic climate

NB UR

Other correlates of retention

  • marital status: easier to move if single student then married with differential employment status

Role of community colleges

  • strong growth
  • also political issues surrounding cutting back on admitting short-term students may put this at risk

Role of temporary workers

  • strong conversion
  • what drives changes over time (event study)

Source region differences

source regions

Involuntary event study

  • why did people come during the pandemic?
  • did they stay (were the attractors temporary or permanent)?

PR inflow

Policy questions

How to create stickiness?

  • choice of immigrants (married vs. students)?
  • housing subsidies?
  • family ties?

How to create a general “pull” effect?

What attracts anybody will also attract immigrants, but how to create differential attractiveness? Why?

How to create specific “pull” effects?

  • clusters? 🇷🇴 🇬🇧

One possible solution

Your competition’s solution

Sponsoring immigrants1

Targeted recruiting

  • Recruit in specific countries
  • Acknowledges the apparent benefits of enclave effects

Footnotes

  1. Source: New York Times